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Barclays Capital turns neutral on $GBPUSD, given the risk snapback seen Thursday. Now looks for stability at best, likely between 1.5860 and 1.5630, although any break of the latter opens immediate risk to 1.5500
Implied vols suggest a $EURUSD breakout, says Barclays Capital, will be seen over the coming week. Now at 1.3746, the current range is 1.3650 to 1.3920, and around the latter opens risk toward 1.4090 which would provide levels for a strategic sell. On the downside the bank says a break below 1.3650 gives reason for a more bearish view, with risk toward 1.3525 and then 1.3440. BarCap says of the two scenarios it favors the bearish one
Post-intervention CHF selloff is over, says Barclays Capital, signalled by the $EURCHF close below 1.2304 on Friday. For the cross, the bank looks for a 1.24-1.22 trading range, followed by a slow return to 1.2120, and possibly even 1.2020. For $USDCHF, consolidation below 0.8955 will likely see a drift toward the 200-day moving average at 0.8753, and possibly an overshoot to 0.8650-0.8600, where it becomes a strategic buy
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$AUDUSD is likely heading toward 1.07 if it can close above 1.0520 tonight, according to Barclays Capital. This current move has done damage to the bank's bearish view and it says only a break back below 1.0395 will keep any downside thoughts alive
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Barclays Capital sticks with its bearish $USDJPY outlook, noting that intervention levels have been consistently lower this year. Now trading at 77.06, the bank's first target is the daily cloud base at 79.87, and on a break, 76.35. BarCap says it will stick with the bearish view while trendline resistance at 79.40 continues to cap
Barclays Capital > Expect a downbeat report from the Bank of England, for UK inflation. "In terms of the forecasts, the growth projection is likely to be lowered significantly, and the mean inflation forecast also reduced, leading to both the mean and mode forecasts for inflation being below 2% at the two-year horizon," says the bank.
Barclays Capital is looking for $AUDUSD to break topside, once it clears the 1.0150-1.0335 consolidation range. It may even stretch to 1.0525 before topping signs appear. Now at 1.0260, only below 1.0080 would damage this outlook and would suggest a top is already in place, says the bank.
A high $EURUSD close tonight suggests the current downtrend is stalling, says Barclays Capital, as it will result in another bullish-momentum divergence warning. Says resistance at 1.2880 and 1.2895 (21-day moving average and outside range day peak) is important this week, and while it caps the downside toward 1.2585 is still favored. A close above 1.2895 warns of a stronger squeeze back toward 1.3075
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Barkley says
Linear Mode
