Friday September 25, 2009
Friday September 25, 2009
[10:00am NY Time]
US New Home Sales BUY 512K SELL 370K USD/JPY
New Home Sales is expected at 442K, if the number is lower, it would
be bad for USD and risk sentiment, so we will look to SELL USD/JPY;
if the number is higher, it would be good for USD and risk
sentiment, we could see a rally in USD and BUY USD/JPY.
Definition:
"Measures the annualized number of new residential buildings that
were sold during the previous month. A rising trend has a positive
effect on the nation's currency because the housing market is a
leading gauge for the overall economy. A high level of housing
activity signals that the construction industry is healthy and that
consumers have the capital to make large investments. More
importantly, new housing activity creates an economic ripple effect
as home owners buy goods such as appliances and furniture for their
homes, and builders buy raw materials and hire more workers to meet
demand."
Analysis:
US Housing data is considered as a global risk event because of the
larger implication over the world economy. Therefore, we should
treat this event more as a risk sentiment event rather than a U.S.
event. In the event of a better than expected release, expect to
see risk appetite sentiment driving the market as investors seek for
returns from the equity market and/or other high-yield instruments;
in the event of a worse than expected release, demand for U.S.
Treasuries should rise as traders seek the safe-haven protection of
the USD.
10:00am US New Home Sales 442K(E) 433K(P) 70K(S) 50M
...and some untradable news
8:30am US Durable Goods
Pending G20 Meetings
E = Expected
P = Previous
S = Surprise Factor
M = Expected Movement in Pips if surprise factor is reached
Henry Liu
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